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Opera Australia staged Sunset Boulevard, a musical about a fading star chasing one last comeback.

Ironically — they were doing the same thing themselves.

They bet big on one show, hoping it would turn around years of financial strain. And just like the story they staged… it didn’t end well.

According to the Financial Review, Sunset Boulevard lost Opera Australia a staggering $22.6 million.

But here’s the real takeaway:
It wasn’t just a failed production. It was a classic “get out stakes” move.

What Are the “Get Out Stakes”?

If you’ve ever been to the races, you’ll know the term.

The “get out stakes” is the last race of the day — the one where punters, already down, throw everything at a long shot hoping to break even.

You’re not betting on the safest horse — you’re betting on the odds that’ll get you out of trouble.

Opera Australia wasn’t betting on Sunset Boulevard because it was the most strategic choice — they were betting on it because they were already in deep, and needed a win.

And like most get out stakes bets… it didn’t pay off.

SMEs Do This All the Time

I see this pattern play out in small and medium-sized businesses more often than you’d think:

• A small operator, under cash flow pressure, takes on a high-volume, low-margin contract hoping it’ll save them.
  But margins are thin, debtor terms blow out, and cash flow gets even worse.
• A contractor hires staff and finances new equipment before they’ve even won the tender.
  When they don’t get it, they’re left with overheads and no revenue — caught in a high-risk move that didn’t land.
• A local café spends $250,000 on a full refit, financed with debt, hoping to bring people back.
  But they don’t fix their core problems — no delivery strategy, weak marketing, no customer data.
  Six months later, they’re still quiet. But now they’re also in debt.

Playing the get out stakes isn’t a growth strategy — it’s desperation.

And if your business only works when the long shot comes in, here’s the truth:

You’ve already lost.

Because the odds are never in your favour when you’re chasing losses.

What Does Good Business Look Like?

Warren Buffett says he looks for three things in a great business:

1. A durable competitive advantage
2. Honest and capable management
3. Consistent, predictable cash flow

Playing the get out stakes?
That ticks none of those boxes. It’s not a competitive advantage, it’s not good management, and it’s anything but predictable.

I’m not a business advisor — and I don’t know your business.  But I do know this: If your business only works when the long shot comes in, you probably need help.

If you’re in that position, reach out. I can connect you with someone who specialises in business turnaround strategy.

That’s my hot take. Let me know what you think.